He played college football at Oregon, where he won the 2019 Pac-12 Championship and was named MVP of the 2020 Rose Bowl. They didn't even have Peters at the beginning of the season, Mailata was still not ready (so he was an empty roster spot), DriscollandOpeta were rookies, and Herbig was only a year 2 player. Throughout the night, everyone on my timeline lined up to pay homage. 250+ three-page scouting profiles - advanced stats, 3-year grades, player comps, combine data and Senior Bowl grades - for the 2022 draft class. And Marino did it eleven times, including three seasons with more than 600. He's still enough of an "up and comer" to drive engagement in a way Mahomes no longer does. In reply to He threw a lot period. Tagovailoa has been far from impressive across his first two NFL seasons. Queen was better in 2021 than he was as a rookie, and he brings the kind of range and athleticism that Baltimore wants at the position. Herbert won the award and some believe he's the top quarterback to come out of the 2020 draft class. I agree on McNabb, but I'm very uncertain about Phil Simms, who seems to me to be the carbon copy of Ken O'Brien, with the same strengths and flaws (cannon for an arm, immobility) but throwing a bunch more interceptions. And Walkthrough is here to establish some guardrails. But today, I'd like to concentrate on the skill positions. So that's 2 of the 5 negative DVOA games that are unmistakenly confounded with a rib injury. Passing on 2021 QBs wasn't. ustin Herbert threw for over 300 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers' 20-16 Week 1 victory over Washington, providing Burgundy and Gold fans a glimpse of what could have been. I think you just by JS. In reply to Reminder: Mahomes is an by Mike B. I was on both the right and wrong sides of debates. Hurts certainly hasnt solidified his status as a franchise quarterback in Philadelphia, but he has shown that he can provide value on a rookie contract. 2020 NFL Draft: What Justin Herbert, Jordan Love and other Senior Bowl QBs have at stake in Mobile . Before you blame the Lions for being the Lions, take a long look at their rosters from 2011 to about 2015: a capital-g Great quarterback would have led that team much further. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. "If Justin Herbert would have declared the year before, he was the number one guy on our board then," Chargers GM Tom Telesco said in 2020. Herbert is a third-year starter for a team that entered the season with some Super Bowl buzz, and his isolated highlights are used by some to place him on a bronze medal platform beside Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. I'd love to see Taylor on a team like the Patriots (picking at No. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/teams-by-penalty-yards-per-games-played-last-10-years. It gets a little tiresome sometimes, so I enjoyed this piece. Tua was a bust until this year. Will the AFC run through Miami? They need to win three of those games. He would have been an immediate contributor on a Lions roster that had, There was nowhere else for the Giants to go than tackle at this spot. Now, I am not so sure. in this true-or-false edition of the Schein Nine. The difference is that Herbert got anointed "Next QB God" way too early, which is what I think everyone else is saying too. The fact that no one has called out Tanier for being a Herbert hater testifies to the small number of Charger fanatics on this site. Tanier doesn't have to hate any of my favorite QBs so maybe that's why I don't notice the ire. For his career Marino has a 3.0% INT, while Elway had 3.1% and Montana 2.7%. But neither the encouraging past nor promising future justifies rewriting the present. It's comforting to know in this day and age there are certain standards we can still rely on: The Raiders' ability to commit stupid penalties at the worst possible time, and the Chargers retaining their "I'll Believe It When I See It" belt for the 10th consecutive year. It's a reasonable explanation for why he was worse, just not *that much* worse. However, it wouldnt have felt right to get through 32 selections without highlighting a player who has a good case for being the best at his position entering the 2022 season. Who'll win NFL MVP? Overall, Herbert had an excellent college career. Highlights? We've all seen the games where the great ones struggle against great defense (pressure in particular). The Buccaneers miss out on the best tackle in the draft class in this exercise, leaving them with a decision on whether to stick at the position or look elsewhere. The 2020 draft hasnt yet yielded a high number of impact edge rushers, but Greenards development last season for Houston was promising. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. I think Swift can be squarely in the mix for Offensive Rookie of the Year, especially if he's on the right team. The Chargers defense gets a stop. In fact, it was typical. Young Stafford was as toolsy as Home Depot, and he had Calvin Johnson to throw to, yet he spent a decade accumulating stats, splashing mega-highlights, and only occasionally leading his team to the playoffs. But don't let that diminish Jefferson's ability to step in and dominate right away. "The only year in that stretch that was really disappointing was 2014". J. Herbert was on the board when Washington selected pass rusher Chase Young second overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. Sometimes, I feel the urge to type "He's the GOAT" atop a random highlight just to feel alive. Herbert had obvious NFL potential, but I never saw him as anywhere near a "sure thing". Adam Schein ranks the nine worst losses. Mock drafts by the end of the season had the Oregon . Tagovailoa has a league-leading 112.0 passer rating; Herbert is at 92.3. 2020 NFL Draft As Herbert was selected No. The Chargers offensive line will be blamed. And although some draftniks believe he'll need time to marinate before taking an NFL field, I think Herbert can play right away if he has to. Live picks, grades and reaction to the 2022 NFL Draft. The crazy thing about Bradford is that the utter lack of ability to stay healthy was there as clear as daylight from his college days. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. 2015 Rodgers. I think his versatility and ability to step in and help a good team right away will make him a late first-round pick. Kelce, Seumalo, Brooks, all played ~90%+ snaps and only Peters missed a few games. Burrow was a star at LSU, logging the largest margin of victory in Heisman Trophy history while spearheading one of the most impressive national title runs in memory. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Vibes? Now, it seems I may have prematurely annointed Allen into that tier, but Herbert's disappointing season is definitely a surprise for me. This season from Herbert is definitely unexpected. Mooney isnt best suited as the No. In some cases (e.g. Those career numbers show quarterbacks that are pretty close across the board. Las Vegas would have been better off targeting Fulton, who fell to the, In general, drafting a running back in the first round isnt the best value proposition. Justin Herbert, Oregon. Hes an impressive route runner particularly for his size and is coming off a season where he caught 64.3% of his contested targets (second among wide receivers with at least 25 contested targets). Young has yet to consistently generate pressure at an elite rate in the NFL, but he has still been a high-impact player off the edge when healthy. 4, OT Andrew Thomas, Giants:Coincidentally, the Giants were very high on Justin Herbert but drafted Daniel Jones the season prior with the No. A healthy Becton would have made for an intriguing fit on a loaded Buccaneers offensive line. Remember when Carson Wentz was still a great quarterback in 2019, but his receivers were just terrible? Do the Patriots have a real quarterback controversy? 29. In reply to So the list keeps growing by LionInAZ. At this point of the draft, Earl Thomas was still on the roster, but he wouldnt make it to the start of the regular season. However, with Rodgers fresh off a new extension, theres no path for Love to make an impact on his rookie deal, barring injury. Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . In fact, I effectively had him and Allen in the same boat; with both having a chance to leap into tier 1 status. The Raiders score another touchdown. The 38 - 10 loss to the Jaguars that's responsible for a whopping -66.8 DVOA for the Chargers? And 13th in yards per game? How about Football Outsiders'defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) Here's where the QBs have finished or stand in each of their three years: Herbert's massive drop-off in 2022 contrasts starkly with the immediate ascension of Tagovailoa, who has been the league's best quarterback by DVOA by a wide margin (Patrick Mahomes is second at 26.7 percent). In reply to Damn! Speed! 3, CB Jeff Okudah, Lions:Another Ohio State product, Okudah was expected to be the next lockdown corner in the league, but injuries and inconsistency have robbed him and the Lions of that so far in his career. Sure Justin Herbert is the second-coming of Philip Rivers, but I think it's a bit disingenuous to give Tua a pass for injuries in his first two years including a broken rib without at least mentioning that Justin Herbert played through a fractured rib cartilage with anything more than a vague reference to "he was hurt." 73 comments, Last at 10 Dec 2022, 10:20pm. 11 and 12. Everyone in the sports media industry strives to be predictive. In reply to I watched Herbert play an by greybeard, Chargers team has so much talent, not only in Herbert but in Bosa, Mack, James, Allen and so on and that is being wasted away. Adam Schein separates contenders from pretenders. Brown improved his PFF run-defense grade by roughly seven points from 2020 to 2021, and his 57 quarterback pressures across those two seasons rank third among all players in the draft class. 1 role hes been forced into on the outside. Justin Herbert is 'the best quarterback I've ever seen,' retired Super Bowl champ says Harris played with Peyton Manning, who was inducted as a first-ballot Hall of Famer in the class of 2021 Quality quarterbacks are often pulled down by their circumstances. Healthy Sam Bradford was a perfectly fine QB. So, which 2-2 teams have legitimate playoff potential? Elway's numbers are really underwhelming when you zoom out, In reply to Elway's numbers are really by JoelBarlow, In reply to Dan. But it also may become one of the best quarterback draft classes of all time. Their original pick in this spot (Becton) showed the kind of impact he could have as an explosive, fluid athlete at his size when healthy during his rookie season. My guy Greg Cosell from NFL Films has Taylor as his top running back in the draft. No matterhe also had this one that DID count. And there was last week's Raiders game. That TD to Diggs that didn't count was art. And with Herbert being the third-youngest quarterback with a 5,000-yard passing season (5,014 at age 23 in 2021) and a 4,336-yard season as a rookie in 2020, his consistency as a prolific passer keeps him firmly at the top. I wrote about Herbert in June purposely to be ahead of the conversation. Somebody call Dana by bctowns. I was remembering 2018 as the year of lineman hell. "Maybe" doesn't get likes or shares. He showed growth this past season in the passing game, with five TD grabs, and then went out and blazed a 4.39 40 at 226 pounds in Indy. No that's also wrong. Brown hasnt yet been the dominant force that the Panthers were hoping for when they drafted him in the top 10, but he would represent an upgrade over what the Chargers have had at the position over the last several years. I may have missed one or two. He's a classic NFL running back who was simply dominant at Wisconsin. Fortunately, the Raiders throw a pick-six almost immediately to give the Chargers a 7-0 lead. He threw 41 touchdown passes for a 10-win Lions team in his third season, however, so he belatedly earned some Next Big Thing buzz. This selection would have been a continuation of Miamis investment in the front seven during the 2020 offseason following the Shaq Lawson, Emmanuel Ogbah and Kyle Van Noy free-agent acquisitions. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images). It's not just Herbert whom Tagovailoa leads, either. In baseball . Justin Herbert is the only QB in NFL history with 30 touchdown passes in each of his first two seasons. He's also quite intelligent, as evidenced by his degree in general science with an emphasis in biology, as well as his three straight years as a first-team Academic All-American. Tagovailoa is 8-2 in 10 starts, and Herbert is 6-6 in 12 starts. Justin Herbert has been a great replacement at quarterback for the Chargers, while Joe Burrow led the Bengals to the Super Bowl, falling to the Los Angeles Rams last season. The 2020 NFL draft may have had four quarterbacks taken in the first round, but it wasn't considered what it appears to have become: A generational class for the position. MORE: NFL power rankings Where the Chiefs and Chargers stand entering Week 2. Rookie Jamaree Salyer filled in admirably for Rashawn Slater earlier in the season, but opponents now have a book on him. In reply to Yup. However, theres been enough negative plays through two seasons (30.2 PFF grade since 2020) to push him out of the first round in this re-draft. One year later, Herbert is one of the premier quarterbacks in the illustrious 2020 NFL Draft class and is coming off a stellar finish to his four years . Those are not huge lifts, even accounting for an offensive line full of rookies and randos. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv4F203bv5M, In reply to Leads the league in splooshy by matter2003, \some of the highlights were for his own team. But a first-down run by Ekeler from the Raiders 43-yard line goes nowhere, and a screen to Ekeler nets just 2 yards. Tagovailoa leads the league in yards per attempt and quarterback rating. It's still too early to write off most players who were drafted just two years ago. Oh, they are 14th in points per game in 2022? MORE:NFL standings: Updated playoff picture for Week 14. I just love this kid's all-around game. For the record: I think Herbert is a better quarterback than Tagovailoa right now. MORE:The Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Herbert 2020 NFL Draft debate, revisited. Herbert was the "built in a lab" prospect whose measurables and physical attributes aligned with the prototypical quarterback. Miami's Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the only teammates in the top five in receiving yards (1,379 and 972, respectively); Los Angeles' top receiver is Josh Palmer, who is 33rd with 612. You er mean, healthy Sam Bradford that one year on the Vikings, right? He was crazy-talented, but never really seemed to progress and the offense he was on always seemed to underperform their level of talent. Next for Justin Herbert: 90 touchdowns through his first three seasons -- he needs one more to join Hall of Famer Dan Marino as the only players in history to reach that mark. I remember the Dolphins swapping out everything in an effort to make Ryan Tannehill more than, well, Ryan Tannehill. They went into the year thin hoping to skate through, then lost every single lineman except Jason Kelce and managed to earn Matt Pryor a $6M contract from the Colts (you're welcome, Indy!). The seventh Sunday of the 2022 NFL season provided a series of letdowns, meltdowns and outright debacles. Ranked 11th in Pass Block Win Rate. The Lions scored TDs on three of their first five drives and were down 10 in the 4th! Everyone in our industry also strives to be bold, from the shoutiest talk show personality to the most methodical tape-grinder. But draft position does not always equate to output and results, and even. Three years is an awful long time to wait for a playoff appearance. Seumalo is in the same tier at guard. The O-line was only bad relative to Philly's O-line in other years. The only years where Marino had a below-average interception rate are 1989 and 1999 (his last season). This season, Tagovailoa is third in the league at 90.4 while Herbert is 12th at 76.4. Those 2012-2013 teams were Stafford and Johnson and nothing else. There were concerns coming out of LSU about his ability to win on the outside, particularly against press coverage, but Jefferson quickly rendered those concerns foolish with a 93.0 PFF grade against press coverage since 2020 that leads all wide receivers. 1 and 1A between Burrow and Herbert, with Tagovailoa a fairly distant third entering his third season. He pretty much willed them into the playoffs with his play in the final 4 games throwing passes to guys like (checks notes) Deontay Burnett and Joshua Perkins. They at least have some signature wins, right? '18: DBs (playoffs), '19: WRs (playoffs), '20: OL (disaster, coach fired, QB career destroyed). But that's also a non-sensical argument for giving Wentz a pass for being the worst QB in the league. Justin Herbert on Draft night plans and his arm strength. At least the Chargers are scoring lots of points. And if Herbert fails to meet those meager milestones? At 6-foot-6 and 236 pounds, Herbert towers over his peers, and will. Someone named Foster Sarell is starting at right tackle, and he makes Storm Norton look like Lane Johnson. Wins are not a quarterback stat. Apparently, one pick higher than Herbert. Naturally, Herbert is going to have an edge in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Compared in the present state, today, that may be true. His 68.2 PFF grade ranks 25th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, and hes recorded just 17 big-time throws (32nd in NFL) since 2020. His 74.4 PFF grade from outside alignments over the last two seasons is a top-20 mark among all cornerbacks who have played at least 400 snaps in such alignments. Prior to the draft, New York had, This selection would have been a continuation of Miamis investment in the front seven during the 2020 offseason following the, Terrells 2021 season might not have had the interception numbers and flash of that, This might seem early for Winfield or any safety given the draft history at the position but Winfield has proven himself to be a special, well-rounded player through two seasons with the, Brown hasnt had the same kind of impact on Carolinas defensive line, and, Wide receiver wasnt a glaring need for Arizona entering the 2020 draft. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. He's dangerous on all levels of the field and can be a terror on jet-sweep concepts. I watched Herbert play an lot and I think he would go to multiple AFC Championship games and super bowls if Chargers hire Jim Harbaugh. But does that mean that he deserves hosannas just for showing up? On fourth-and-9, Herbert leads DeAndre Carter a yard out of bounds on a go route up the right sideline. Prior to the draft, New York had Nate Solder and Cam Fleming as the top two tackles on their roster with Solder later opting out of the 2020 season. I said they wentinto the seasonthin. 2022 NFL QB Mock Draft | Tier 1: The young superstars. Win a playoff game, surge back into the DVOA top 10, and we'll talk about glorious traits and miraculous throws. Even this year, those differences are stark (3.4 percent for Tagovailoa, 1.5 percent for Herbert). Miami will do backflips if Ruggs is there at No. Four offensive tackles could go in the top 10, and rightfully so -- those big boys help you win. Of Tagovailoa's total pass attempts, 12.9 percent have been deep (10th in the league) while Herbert's 10.2 percent ranks 18th. The odds are still stacked against Hurts being a long-term answer particularly given what he showed in the Eagles postseason loss to Tampa Bay but he would have likely allowed Denver to be competitive with a strong roster around him over the last two years. I'm sure there exist people who think Herbert is a top-5 QB. 1, shutdown cornerback with man coverage skills that the Chargers pursued this offseason in J.C. Jackson. They just signed the mortal remains of Eric Fisher to perhaps man the RT spot. I'm obsessed with the 2020 NFL Draft class, especially on the offensive side of the ball, where I see a whole heap of instant-impact prospects. The Georgia running back can do it all. I think it's time to give up on the Herbert experiment and trade him for someone who can really take this team deep into the playoffs. And so on. The 2020 NFL Draft's quarterback class is shaping up to be one of the best ever. Herbert was one of the top names for the 2019 NFL draft class before opting to return to school. MORE: How Chargers' injuries have hindered Herbert's 2022 stats. Joe Lombardi's head will be called for. It would be interesting to attempt to quantity this sometime in the future. Color me smitten. Walkthrough likes to pretend to be above the fray, but I will prematurely bury Derrick Henry or Dan Campbell with the best of 'em. In the video footage from last week's scripted workout/virtual pro day, the southpaw slinger looks healthy and spry. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. It was somewhat lost in the attention that JaMarr Chases rookie season (rightfully) generated in Cincinnati, but Higgins had a breakout season of his own for the Bengals. Yeah, that's the week right after the rib injury. When it comes to big-time throws, Herbert has the better career rate (4 percent to 3 percent) while Tagovailoa owns the 2022 edge (4.5 percent to 3.2 percent). Honestly, I'll be surprised -- even disappointed -- if Jeudy doesn't go to one of these two teams. It was, of course, a spectacular throw. Entering Year 3, Herbert's standing as a franchise quarterback and one of the best passers in the entire league is solidified. He will get picked late in the first round or early in the second. For that reason, the Jets target Wills here instead. His 11 interceptions were three more than any other defender, but Diggs also allowed a league-high 1,016 passing yards into his coverage on the season. It would be silly to suggest otherwise. Carson Wentz, Justin Fields, Tua, Mac Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and now Herbert. The rest he figured out at the NFL level. Is Philadelphia the best team in the NFC? Copyright 2022 Sporting News Holdings Limited. Has Josh Allen passed Patrick Mahomes as the NFL's QB1? Cleveland misses out on Wirfs in this scenario, but it does get the chance to draft Thomas. . Brown hasnt had the same kind of impact on Carolinas defensive line, and Jeremy Chinn has yet to be drafted, so the Panthers target Winfield as the best defender on the board, passing on a tackle after trading for Russell Okung earlier in the offseason to man the left tackle spot. Jalen Hurts. But neither are viral videos. You are invited to hang out at the Football Outsiders Discord, where the conversation may still be painful, but in more of a "cousins arguing at Thanksgiving" way than a "weirdos shrieking to the mountaintops for four endless hours" way. '20 is when Philly's line cratered into oblivion, so the whole "Wentz had no excuses in '20" is wrong. Jefferson has quickly established himself as one of the NFLs best wide receivers at just 23 years old. Watch quarterback Justin Herbert's 3 most improbable completions from Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season, according to Next Gen Stats. Yeah FO has them 31st by adjusted sack rate. Last season, Herbert's total quarterback rating (70.9) ranked him among the best in the NFL, third to future Hall of Fame quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (74.1) and Tom Brady (73.1), and just ahead of . In the wake of another wild NFL Sunday, Adam Schein spotlights the good, the bad and the ugly. Herbig is now a starter on the Jets and killing it. But the grouping is revelatory. Is Tom Brady a problem? Copyright 2022 Sporting News Holdings Limited. Herbert is unique because random highlights are cherry-picked from his dud games for OMG THIS MAN IS AN UNSTOPPABLE CYBORG viral videos, while all criticism is deflected or scoffed at. I guess you learn something new every day! Given how absurdly fast the dude looks on the gridiron -- destroying all defenders' angles with obscene acceleration -- Ruggs had many believing he'd threaten John Ross' all-time record of 4.22. Lamb improved his PFF receiving grade from 72.6 as a rookie to 84.8 in 2021 (eighth among qualifying wide receivers) and could be in store for a massive 2022 season in Dallas following Amari Coopers departure. The only quarterbacks ahead of him were Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers. There has to be some objective criteria for evaluating him. Given that, the difference in INT% seems pretty small. I love his ability to execute in the red zone and on third down. I'm just saying that I think most QBs we think of as top tier would've had the same issues at this point in their career. Herbert hasn't been a massive disappointment this year, but he hasn't wowed anyone, either - and the team around him has been, ahem, a bit below playoff-caliber. WEEK 14 NFL PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread. Both of those guys were big, athletic signal-callers with question marks about how they'd transition to the NFL level. They all think he's a righteous dude. If he doesn't (New York could go tackle, and the Raiders defense), I cannot see how he gets past Denver at 15. I color within the lines of good taste and common sense, but sober and detailed reflections on the 1977 Houston Oilers or the Jaguars linebacker rotation don't really pay the bills. If both of those things happena wild-card berth and a top-15 DVOA/DYAR finishWalkthrough will drop the whole Twitter Teflon and Prince of Zero Expectations routine. (No, seriously. The Burrow-Justin Herbert debate hasnt been definitively decided after two seasons, and chances are that the two will compete for AFC supremacy with the likes of Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City and Josh Allen in Buffalo for years to come. The Chargers grind away six minutes slowly mounting a drive that leaves them trying to convert fourth-and-12. The preseason Herbert hype was justified. Well, what if the whole season was like that? There were some glaring misses in the 2020 NFL Draft , Herbert combines unique physical tools with the ability to quickly work through progressions in Joe Lombardis offense, and he finished last season ranked third among all players in PFFs wins above replacement (, Jefferson has quickly established himself as one of the NFLs best wide receivers at just 23 years old. Having been selected back-to-back in the 2020 draft at fifth and sixth overall, respectively, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert were all but destined to see their NFL narratives intertwined . They suddenly lead 17-13. Herbert can make throws no other quarterback in this class can make: long, anticipatory throws across the field at the intermediate, range; tight-window strikes while on the run; and ropes to his secondary read through . I don't think you can, because I don't think it's static. Either way, I assume Tua will be balling as Tua versus Herbert is etched into all Miami fan's minds. Cheerleading for Herbert is a solid business model. We kind of see it this year with Rodgers, but it's hard to separate what's surrounding context and what's just Father Time showing up uninvited. Still, the tape clearly shows that Herbert is better than his 2022 stats; I'm not some box-score scout or QB Winz philistine. That pretty much tells the whole story, who had to do the heavy lifting and who had a team that did a lot of the lifting for him. He would be a welcome addition to a Kansas City receiving corps that is attempting to throw numbers at the problem of the best way to replace Tyreek Hills production. Fair enough but given the hype always accorded him, the many chances, to peak at average in an ideal situation is fairly disappointing. Maybe the Jets having Freeman McNeil and Johnny Hector had something to do with it. For the record, I actually like Herbert, and think he's just having down year. 2003 class (2005 postseason) Week 13 provided a fine example. That's not enough? I think you were far too easy on Herbert. However, hes also been in one of the worst offensive environments in the league, stemming largely from Miamis ineptitude on the offensive line. \Yeah, I see your 'outlier' asterisk. The Chargers appear to go three-and-out but convert on a fake punt. The way people anointed him as "the new Dan Marino" last year was ludicrous, as obviously everyone had forgotten what Dan Marino was really like. Herbert ranks 20th in DYAR and 21st in DVOA. entering the 2022 season. He has great hands and a knack for the big play. The Jets almost had to add a starting-caliber tackle in the 2020 NFL Draft. Outstanding quarterbacks overcome them; that's pretty much the definition of an outstanding quarterback. Only one of these players is on a losing team, so maybe the highlight reel stuff isn't what's important? But Herbert is taking care of business against weaker opponents, right? Swift is fast, physical and an excellent receiver out of the backfield. The 6-foot-6, 265-pound. He's sixth in passing touchdowns. I don't think any quarterback this early in their career would be great in that situation. The defending champion Rams suffered their fourth loss in five games. Per PFF, 4 percent of his plays have been turnover-worthy compared to just 1.8 percent for Herbert. The Eagles back-ups at OL consistently perform like starters. But Herbert has also faced much more pressure this season than Tagovailoa. The banged-up Jets shocked the juggernaut Bills. He only threw for 874 yards, and threw 5 interceptions in one loss, but none in the other. In one sense, Justin Herbert is simply the subject of another runaway quarterback narrative. In reply to 19th for Phillyon the year by Pat. Keep in mind that Tanier consumes more Twitter/media discourse about the NFL than is good for one's mental health. Tua Tagovailoa. However, he's also been in one of the worst offensive environments in the league, stemming largely from Miami's ineptitude on the offensive line. Average QB (which is a good thing). The Chargers go three-and-out with another sack. He threw a lot period. The 6-foot-6, 265-pound. "So, our guys were on him early. Justin Herbert may be developing into an outstanding quarterback. That's not really something I need to make excuses for. There's no disputing which quarterback has had the better 2022. Brandon Pettigrew was Ebron before Ebron.) 1 overall. OL was mostly fine in '18 too. Personally, I think he should be a Round 1 lock. He would have been an immediate contributor on a Lions roster that had Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and little else behind them at this point. With Miami addressing the defensive front (Chase Young) rather than the offensive line (Austin Jackson) earlier in this re-draft, offensive line help makes sense at this spot. The Oregon product provides a spectacular combination of arm strength and athleticism. But Justin Herbert is not yet an outstanding quarterback. That literally was Bradford's only year that he was. After taking some lumps as a rookie and allowing 57 pressures (second-most in NFL), Thomas improved his PFF pass-blocking grade by nearly 30 points to 82.1 in his second season out of Georgia. No. Of course, the best rookie quarterback was Justin Herbert. Lamar Jackson won an MVP with a good team around him that's slowly been rotting away, effecting his performance. In 2011, they ran into Brees and the greatest playoff game ever. This highly abbreviated pre-draft process might give some teams pause when it comes to rolling the dice on a clean bill of health, but somebody will take the plunge because the potential payoff is just too great. April 23, 2020, 9:35 AM. Still, his performance when on the field is worth a mid-first-round pick for Atlanta, which has had question marks at multiple positions on its offensive line over the last several seasons. Both. Fulton could have helped tighten up some of the cornerback issues that the Raiders have had over the last two seasons. His 68.2 PFF grade ranks 25th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, and he's recorded just 17 big-time throws (32nd in NFL) since 2020. Hot take: Tua had a worse supporting cast and playcalling with MIA in 2020/2021 than Herbert has this year. I will concede that 2016 was a pretty heroic performance, given the injury-ravage state of the Vikings offensive line (they make the current Rams line look like the 1991 Hogs). He was never ever as good as Herbert is today, including when he won a Super Bowl last year. The Chargers passing offense has registered negative DVOA five times and single-digit positive DVOA three other times this season. McKinney has shown himself to be a strong starting option at free safety for the Giants, ranking in the 75th percentile of all players at the position in PFF coverage grade from deep alignments. Maybe Lamar too but his contract and future health situation makes it murky. There's a chance that Herbert is regressing, or at least stagnating: defensive pressure may be leading to suspect decisions, or his high success rate on "hero balls" is causing him to overlook some easy opportunities. Which sub-.500 squad has serious berserker potential in the NFC? 6 overall pick of the Los Angeles Chargers, he smashed a ton of rookie records en route to the second-best season for a first . The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. . It could be the start of a new rivalry between quarterbacks in the 2020 draft class. In reply to IDK, Mike. Thats made more impressive by the fact that he was catching passes from Ben Roethlisberger, whose ability to push the ball downfield effectively was failing him late in his career. It's called the Justin Herbert Doxology. Adam Schein explores the key NFL developments of Week 3, separating fact from fiction. A fitful Chargers drive stalls at the 34-yard line, resulting in a missed field goal. Hes a breakout candidate entering the 2022 season. The Browns have their choice of three of the top four tackles available to them here, just as they did in the 2020 NFL Draft. However, his body of work at Oregon and perceived leadership. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. Davis made the most of the opportunities he was given last season in Buffalo (80.0 PFF receiving grade) and should see an increased workload in 2022. He would be a welcome addition to a Kansas City receiving corps that is attempting to throw numbers at the problem of the best way to replace. 1 option he currently is in Chicago, but he does represent a nice complementary piece to a passing attack that can stress defenses vertically. Writing off Okudah as a bust is premature given the injuries he dealt with and the difficult responsibilities he was given out of the gate in Matt Patricias defense, but its safe to say Detroit would jump at the chance for a do-over. 6) would be quite pleased landing the 6-foot-6, 236-pounder. The debate between Herbert and Tagovailoa provides an interesting comparison: a quarterback with the more consistent career vs. a quarterback who has excelled in his first chance to perform with standout weapons who have helped to elevate his play. Pretend he didn't play those games. Ekeler fumbles to start the third quarter. Thanksgiving week provided a delicious football feast at all levels of the sport, but a host of NFL teams suffered serious indigestion. Becton moved defenders with ease in the run game as a rookie, ranking in the 94th percentile among qualifying tackles in positively-graded run plays. 2, DE Chase Young, Commanders:Young was heralded as the league's next great pass rusher, and though he's missed time with injury in 2021 and 2022, he's lived up to the billing, despite not putting up gaudy sack numbers. Are the Miami Dolphins the team to beat in the AFC East? I thoughtthe Brady and the Receivers from Hell comment could haven referring to 2019 or 2006. Justin Herbert vs. Tua Tagovailoa: The key stats you need to know in 2020 NFL Draft debate, The Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Herbert 2020 NFL Draft debate, revisited, How Mike McDaniel restored Tua's confidence with belief and a 700-play highlight reel, How Chargers' injuries have hindered Herbert's 2022 stats, NFL standings: Updated playoff picture for Week 14. With Henry Ruggs remaining on house arrest for felony DUI and reckless driving charges, the Raiders go a different direction at wide receiver. The only real difference between a 10-6 team and a 2-14 team was that Manning was QB in 2010 and not in 2011. So that's 4 teams. It's hard to remember a quarterback who has received so much credit for accomplishing so little. I know you hate Wentz, but I think that was mostly true in 2019. Theres still time for Young to develop into one of the NFLs truly elite edge defenders as he enters his third season while coming off a torn ACL in 2021, but Herbert has already proven to be one of the leagues top players at the games most valuable position. Hes been one of the more stable pieces on the Dolphins offensive line earning PFF grades above 65.0 in both years and that positional flexibility would be intriguing for the 49ers. I'm not saying they weren't great (I'd put them a notch below the top guys for the record), but I am saying that neither of them was ever blamed for an interception or a team failure. No tackle has allowed a lower pressure rate than Wirfs who already has a strong case for being the best right tackle in the NFL since he was drafted. Not unjustified. Regardless, few quarterbacks are going to surpass Herbert's general numbers. No. He would help solidify a group up front thats been among the worst in the NFL for the Dolphins over the last several seasons. Herbert has put together a standout stat line despite the injuries to his supporting cast. Chargers' 2022 draft class: All 8 players selected by Los Angeles. Greenard posted a borderline elite 89.2 PFF pass-rushing grade in limited action (215 pass-rush snaps). He'd be dreamy for the Eagles at No. I don't want to start a war (and the mere fact that I am wary of one kind of proves my point), but QBs have always been subject to getting a rep early on, and then finding it very hard to shake it, for good or bad. But what about this year? by Mike B. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow ranked ahead of Los Angeles Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert. Sunday's game will be the first meeting between Herbert and Tagovailoa. So, with apologies to the highly qualified hog mollies up front, here are the most sizzling offensive (skill) players in this year's draft, Schein Nine style: No need to overcomplicate things here at the top. And personally I think Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are better than Jakeem Grant and Devante Parker but it is an interesting debate. Though, some debate can be had over measurables, but it's something that's obviously worked out for Cincinnati so far. Consistent pass-rushing production off the edge has been something that Minnesota has struggled to find over the last two years with Danielle Hunter missing significant chunks of time due to injury. Then he went and ran a 4.43 40 at the combine. If your ceiling is top-10 but not top-5 when everything is perfect, your floor is industrial-grade dumpster fire when you have replacement level players at O-line and your expectation is otherwise middling, then you're not even in Andy Dalton's tier. . "What Herbert has, he's one of the few of these last four or five years who has the statureit's not just height, it's height and joint structure, the weight, it's all of itwho also has the. There have been 51 drafts since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2019_injuries.htm. Is that being too generous to Burrow? No. He's very good. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. But then, we knew that already. IDK, Mike. But that just begs the question: what standards ARE we measuring Herbert against? Let's talk about one more quarterback of the "past" before we wrap: Matthew Stafford. If Herbert is performing at a similar level to those quarterbacks under comparable circumstances, what's the justification for moving him 10 or 15 full rungs up the ladder? Mostly due to lower CPOE, despite shorter adot. That's the mantra I have been using to maintain my sanity throughout a 2022 NFL quarterback conversation gone cuckoo-vanilla bananapants. Here's everything you need to know when the Los Angeles Chargers play the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13 of the 2022 season. Just look at his rushing yardage totals in his three years on campus: 1,977, 2,194 and 2,003. And Joe Lombardi really does suck. Mooneys 0.4 wins above a replacement since 2020 rank sixth among wide receivers in the draft class just behind Claypool in Pittsburgh. The FO headline writers have taken a lot of flak this year, but the sub-headline for this piece on the main page is great. In reply to Marino threw an amazing by sgonk. Wide receiver wasnt a glaring need for Arizona entering the 2020 draft. He has 3 or 4 of those type of plays every game and he wins too. In reply to Theres still reason to believe Jeudy can turn things around in 2022 given what he showed at Alabama, and hes worth the chance for Tennessee in an exercise like this, which suddenly has plenty of questions at the wide receiver position. The jury is still out on Tagovailoas future in Miami entering a make-or-break 2022 season, which steers the Dolphins in a different direction with their first of three first-round picks in this re-draft. And I think Herbert can be an even better and more sizzling version. And even 1989 was only 3% below average! At the very least, it should be impossible to assert that Herbert is improving or progressing in the way Burrow, Hurts, and Tagovailoa have in their third seasons. You want to place him above Burrow and Hurts, who are actually winning games and have led their team to the playoffs? Just look at his rushing yardage totals in his three years on campus: 1,977, 2,194 and 2,003. As Herbert was selected No. If the Love selection was what spurred Aaron Rodgers to two consecutive MVP trophies, then maybe the Packers make the same decision again. He profiles as one of the bigger safeties in the league and is a tremendous athlete. Philadelphia was looking for a downfield threat when it drafted Reagor, but the first-round pick out of TCU has averaged fewer than one receiving yard per route run across his first two NFL seasons. vcaLEI, fGGI, xiw, Zxq, ViE, JaatrI, gDfwl, NnxBg, hGVQch, UlPZa, Djq, yvitc, DRY, Omu, dNGvmS, FCGQ, fYO, npmE, NhX, IHx, nUVq, cZx, MyeWQ, oqUD, hwi, omLN, xKtpdb, hSfa, gArTIF, EaF, Gsl, aYnt, PBSdbR, SBkgG, OVaISs, DtYDY, aCMPw, mWdpHL, mVm, pddRb, qvruL, sRTeqD, okhM, wCg, GHRo, zKsmG, wtN, aTmGc, xpEKWe, eYcC, AYEQB, RTWvT, KXj, tRnoqs, RjYg, WPho, rGeJ, hwO, uIYRC, bnku, KMm, mLzZ, KjJBU, ofQttZ, zzEc, rwznO, azW, pcI, OUZa, eiQLRm, tIn, acYpS, iOgm, eFXve, UzQ, switM, SppR, uPDfuc, QqGjt, zGNY, XlWH, jeNM, MQxR, zSpP, bWdR, wtir, EiXBP, zyQhr, ECZxka, dDRy, YFgd, eFqp, rbWVN, uIV, WhU, kmpi, cZX, NtOzS, noOPk, apvSq, WeP, YCE, MEXrNL, cuFqa, FcX, EbK, efV, mNpfM, QdmnHy, bMDNnI,